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TTE:EURONEXT PARISTotalEnergies SE Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time

$80.43

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

TotalEnergies is trading at €80.43, well below its 20‑day SMA of 87.69 and 50‑day SMA of 89.56, indicating a short‑term bearish bias, yet the RSI of 24.2 places the stock in oversold territory and the price sits just above the identified support at €80.19. The MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, reinforcing downside pressure, but the 30‑day volatility of 23.9% and a near‑zero beta (‑0.11) suggest limited systematic risk. Valuation metrics are compelling: the forward PE of 8.0 is far below the industry average of 20.1, the current PE of 11.9 signals a discount, and the upside/downside estimate of +21% aligns the market price below analyst target medians of €103.
Fundamentally, the company posted €184 bn in revenue with 3.4% growth, maintains a solid gross margin of 38% and operating margin of 20%, and generates €28 bn of operating cash flow. With a dividend yield of 5.24% and a payout ratio of 59%, cash flow coverage is strong, while the debt‑to‑equity of 51% remains manageable given a €30 bn cash balance. Recent regulatory filings confirm a capital increase reserved for employees, underscoring shareholder‑friendly policies. Overall, the blend of attractive valuation, robust cash generation, and a high, sustainable dividend positions TotalEnergies as a value‑oriented opportunity amid a neutral technical backdrop.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • RSI in oversold region suggesting potential bounce
  • Price near technical support level
  • High dividend yield offering downside protection

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount to peers (PE 11.9 vs industry 20.1)
  • Strong cash flow and moderate leverage
  • Attractive upside to analyst target median (€103)

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Diversification into renewables and low‑carbon hydrogen
  • Sustainable dividend supported by free cash flow
  • Long‑term energy demand and solid balance sheet

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.40%
Profit Margin8.20%
P/E Ratio11.9
ROE12.51%
ROA4.89%
Debt/Equity51.30
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$28.1B
Free Cash Flow$10.1B
Industry P/E20.1

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI24.2
Support$80.19
Resistance$93.87
MA 20$87.69
MA 50$89.56
MA 200$74.36
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.98

Valuation

Fair Value$53.44
Target Price$97.19
Upside/Downside20.83%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield5.24%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.11
Volatility23.86%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.